학회지 「도시부동산연구」
한국도시부동산학회 홈페이지에 오신 것을 환영합니다.
인구구조 변화가 지역내총생산에 미치는 영향 - 성장분해모형의 인천광역시 적용사례를 중심으로 |
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| 2021년 04월. 12권 1호(통권28호) | ||
저자 |
저자명 최태림, 최명섭 | |
|---|---|---|
발행사 |
발행사 한국도시부동산학회 | |
ISSN |
ISSN 2093-4750 | |
주제어 |
주제어 인구구조변화, 지역내총생산, 성장분해 모형, 인천광역시 | |
요약 (영) |
요약 (영) Demographic change has been paid attention to policy makers in South Korea because this country experienced unprecedented aging society. Even large metropolitan cities lost their population and the ratio of working age population sharply dropped. There has been growing concern on the devastating effect of rapid demographic changes on the metropolitan cities. The paper aims to analyze the effect of demographic structural change on the regional economic growth in a case of Incheon metropolitan city of South Korea. We employ a growth decomposition method through which per capita GRDP is decomposed into some factors including productivity, reallocation of labor, employment rate, and ratio of working age population. The analytical result provides some empirical findings of the negative effect of population aging but those effects are offset by increase of labor market participation and sectoral productivity. In addition, we simulate the effect of demographic changes over 20 years. It shows that per capita GRDP of Incheon metropolitan city would reach a peak in 2028 and then decline gradually. | |
원문보기 |
원문보기 | |
